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Updated: Jan 19, 2026
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Published on: October 23, 2025
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Risk of a feedback loop between climatic warming and human mobility.
Nick Obradovich1,2, Iyad Rahwan1,3,2
1Media Lab, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA.
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|September 12, 2019
Summary
Warmer temperatures significantly increase transportation use, including vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and public transit trips (PTT). This amplified travel may create a feedback loop, worsening climate change.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Human Behavior Studies
Background:
- Climate change influences human behaviors, potentially creating feedback loops.
- Understanding how temperature affects transportation is crucial for climate change mitigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of rising temperatures on transportation use in the USA.
- To project future transportation changes based on climate model data.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of meteorological data alongside vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and public transit trips (PTT) data from 2002-2018.
- Utilizing climate model projections to forecast future transportation impacts.
Main Results:
- Temperatures up to 30°C substantially increase VMT (over 10%) and public transit trips (nearly 15%).
- Temperatures exceeding 30°C show diminishing effects on transportation use.
- Projected warming may lead to over one trillion cumulative VMT and six billion PTT in the USA.
Conclusions:
- Increased transportation use due to warming presents a potential feedback loop, exacerbating climate change.
- Future climate change could significantly elevate transportation-related emissions in the USA.
- Policy interventions may be needed to address this emerging human-environmental feedback loop.
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