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Forecasting China's wastewater discharge using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data
Lili Ding1, Zhanlei Lv2, Meng Han3
1School of Economics, Ocean University of China, China; Marine Development Studies Institute of OUC, Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences at Universities, Ministry of Education, Qingdao, China.
Environmental Pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)
|September 16, 2019
Summary
Forecasting China's wastewater emissions is crucial for effective environmental management. A new combination-MIDAS model accurately predicts quarterly wastewater discharge, identifying water consumption as a key factor.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Econometrics
- Water Resource Management
Background:
- Accurate forecasting of wastewater discharge is essential for effective wastewater treatment and environmental policy.
- Understanding the drivers of wastewater emissions is critical for sustainable development in China.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose and evaluate a novel mixed-data sampling regression model for forecasting quarterly wastewater emissions in China.
- To identify dynamic factors influencing wastewater discharge at different frequencies.
Main Methods:
- Development of a combination-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regression model.
- Analysis of dynamic factors and their frequencies impacting wastewater emissions.
- Comparison of the proposed model's performance against benchmark models.
Main Results:
- Significant auto-correlation was found in wastewater emissions data.
- Water consumption per ten thousand GDP was identified as the strongest predictor of wastewater emissions.
- The combination-MIDAS models demonstrated robust and superior forecasting performance compared to benchmark models.
Conclusions:
- The combination-MIDAS models effectively capture the characteristics of wastewater emissions.
- The proposed method offers a robust approach to address model misspecification and uncertainty in wastewater discharge management.
- This methodology supports improved control and management strategies for wastewater in China.