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Scenario-based land abandonment projections: Method, application and implications.

Ronald C Estoque1, Kei Gomi2, Takuya Togawa2

  • 1Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research/Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki 305-0053, Japan.

The Science of the Total Environment
|September 22, 2019
PubMed
Summary

Future land abandonment in Fukushima, Japan, was projected using a novel modeling framework. Agricultural land abandonment is higher under high growth, while residential land abandonment is higher under low growth scenarios.

Keywords:
AdaptationAdaptive planningEcosystem servicesLand abandonmentLand usePopulation declineScenario analysis

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Regional Planning
  • Socioeconomics

Background:

  • Land abandonment, particularly agricultural land abandonment, has significant social and ecological consequences.
  • Projecting the extent and spatial patterns of future land abandonment is crucial for planning.
  • Future land abandonment is influenced by biophysical conditions and socioeconomic changes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a general framework for scenario-based land abandonment projection.
  • To apply this framework in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, using two distinct socioeconomic scenarios.
  • To provide insights for adaptive development planning.

Main Methods:

  • A coupled regional economic and spatially explicit land change modeling approach was developed.
  • The framework was applied to selected municipalities in Fukushima Prefecture.
  • Two socioeconomic development scenarios (low-low and high-high growth) were analyzed for the period 2014-2050.

Main Results:

  • Agricultural land abandonment is projected to be more intense under the high-growth scenario due to a greater decline in the farming population.
  • Residential and urban land abandonment is projected to be more significant under the low-growth scenario due to a greater decline in the total population.
  • Hot spot maps visualized the spatial patterns of projected land abandonment.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides insights into plausible future socioeconomic changes and their impact on land abandonment.
  • The findings are valuable for forward-looking adaptive development planning in the case study area.
  • The proposed projection framework is adaptable for application in other regions.