Influence of Mortality on Estimating the Risk of Kidney Failure in People with Stage 4 CKD

Most kidney failure risk calculators are based on methods that censor for death. Because mortality is high in people with severe, nondialysis-dependent CKD, censoring for death may overestimate their risk of kidney failure.

Using 2002-2014 population-based laboratory and administrative data for adults with stage 4 CKD in Alberta, Canada, we analyzed the time to the earliest of kidney failure, death, or censoring, using methods that censor for death and methods that treat death as a competing event factoring in age, sex, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, eGFR, and albuminuria. Stage 4 CKD was defined as a sustained eGFR of 15-30 ml/min per 1.73 m².

Of the 30,801 participants (106,447 patient-years at risk; mean age 77 years), 18% developed kidney failure and 53% died. The observed risk of the combined end point of death or kidney failure was 64% at 5 years and 87% at 10 years. By comparison, standard risk calculators that censored for death estimated these risks to be 76% at 5 years and >100% at 7.5 years. Censoring for death increasingly overestimated the risk of kidney failure over time from 7% at 5 years to 19% at 10 years, especially in people at higher risk of death. For example, the overestimation of 5-year absolute risk ranged from 1% in a woman without diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or albuminuria and with an eGFR of 25 ml/min per 1.73 m² (9% versus 8%), to 27% in a man with diabetes, cardiovascular disease, albuminuria >300 mg/d, and an eGFR of 20 ml/min per 1.73 m² (78% versus 51%).

Kidney failure risk calculators should account for death as a competing risk to increase their accuracy and utility for patients and providers.