Poverty and Homicide in Detroit, 1926-1978

The effect of poverty on crime is a controversial issue, mostly because past research has produced only weak evidence of a relationship between economic hardship and crime rates. A review of the literature suggests, however, that time-series data have not been fully exploited in studies of the poverty-crime relationship. This paper helps fill that gap by presenting a regression equation that links poverty and the homicide rate in Detroit from 1926 to 1978. The equation uses a measure based on the infant mortality rate in order to avoid problems associated with monetary indicators of poverty, and it allows for lagged effects across time. The results strongly support the idea that increases in the level of poverty lead to increases in homicide rates.