Predictors of postoperative early recurrence of extrahepatic bile duct cancer

Resected bile duct cancers often relapse during postoperative follow-up. The aim of this study was to detect predictors of early recurrence in patients with extrahepatic bile duct cancer.

Consecutive cases (n = 162) of extrahepatic bile duct cancer in which R0 or R1 resection was achieved in Kobe University Hospital between 2000 and 2016 were divided into three groups [early recurrence (ER), within 6 months of surgery, late recurrence (LR), and no recurrence (NR)] and their clinicopathological features were compared.

Twenty-two patients (14%) developed ER and 69 (43%) developed LR after surgery. The rates of lymph node metastasis and residual cancer status were similar in all three groups. Liver metastasis was more common in the ER group than in the LR group (59% vs. 32%, p = 0.02). ER had a significantly worse prognosis than LR and NR (7% vs. 44% vs. 85% at 1 year, p < 0.01, respectively). Multivariate analysis showed that age > 75 years, serum CA19-9 > 1008 U/ml and perineural invasion were independent predictors of early recurrence.

High serum CA19-9 values (> 1008 U/ml) were an independent predictor of early recurrence. Neoadjuvant therapy and aggressive adjuvant therapy may be beneficial for patients who show highly elevated CA19-9 values before surgery.