De-climatizing food security: Lessons from climate change micro-simulations in Peru

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Socioeconomic Modeling

Background:

• Climate change poses risks to food security globally.
• Accurate modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security is crucial for policy design.
• Peru faces specific regional climate challenges impacting its agricultural sector.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the implications of climate change (CC) on food insecurity in Peru.
• To assess the impact of CC on agricultural yields and food consumption.
• To identify mediating factors that influence household vulnerability to food insecurity.

Main Methods:

• Utilized downscaled climate predictions for 2050 from three Earth System Models.
• Employed a three-stage socioeconomic microsimulation model incorporating climate risk.
• Accounted for endogeneity of incomes and simultaneity of food consumption and variability.

Main Results:

• Projected agricultural yield declines of up to 13% in some Peruvian regions due to CC.
• Observed smaller-than-expected changes in food consumption despite yield fluctuations.
• Found surprisingly minor impacts on household vulnerability to food insecurity.

Conclusions:

• Household and market mechanisms significantly mediate the impact of agricultural yield changes on food insecurity.
• Policy design should consider these mediating factors for effective food security interventions.
• Findings offer insights for combating food insecurity in regions with high hunger prevalence.