Early prediction of noninvasive ventilation failure in COPD patients: derivation, internal validation, and external
Jun Duan1, Shengyu Wang2, Ping Liu3
1Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Youyi Road 1, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400016, People's Republic of China. duanjun412589@163.com.
Background:
Early identification of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) failure is a promising strategy for reducing mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. However, a risk-scoring system is lacking.
Methods:
To develop a scale to predict NIV failure, 500 COPD patients were enrolled in a derivation cohort. Heart rate, acidosis (assessed by pH), consciousness (assessed by Glasgow coma score), oxygenation, and respiratory rate (HACOR) were entered into the scoring system. Another two groups of 323 and 395 patients were enrolled to internally and externally validate the scale, respectively. NIV failure was defined as intubation or death during NIV.
Results:
Using HACOR score collected at 1-2 h of NIV to predict NIV failure, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was 0.90, 0.89, and 0.71 for the derivation, internal-validation, and external-validation cohorts, respectively. For the prediction of early NIV failure in these three cohorts, the AUC was 0.91, 0.96, and 0.83, respectively. In all patients with HACOR score > 5, the NIV failure rate was 50.2%. In these patients, early intubation (< 48 h) was associated with decreased hospital mortality (unadjusted odds ratio = 0.15, 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.39, p < 0.01).
Conclusions:
HACOR scores exhibited good predictive power for NIV failure in COPD patients, particularly for the prediction of early NIV failure (< 48 h). In high-risk patients, early intubation was associated with decreased hospital mortality.
Related Concept Videos
01:20Assessment of Ventilation I: Respiratory Rate
A Ventilation assessment is critical for monitoring a patient's health status. Respiration, one of the most accessible vital signs, provides insights into the function of numerous body systems and can indicate serious health issues, such as brainstem injuries from head trauma.
Critical Guidelines for Assessing Ventilation:
01:27Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease-IV: Assessement and Diagnostic Studies
Medical History
01:26COPD: Management Using Bronchodilators and Corticosteroids
01:19Factors Affecting Pulmonary Ventilation
Alveolar Surface Tension
The alveolar fluid lines the luminal surface of the alveoli and exerts a force called surface tension. This force is caused by the polar water molecules in the liquid being more strongly attracted to each...
01:23Mechanical Ventilation III: Noninvasive Ventilation
Noninvasive Positive-Pressure Ventilation...
01:19Respiratory Assessment: Purpose and Indications
Objectives and Importance:
The primary goal of respiratory assessment is to evaluate patients at early risk of clinical deterioration. Since respiratory distress often precedes other signs of declining health, breathing patterns and sounds become a...