Prediction of effects of dairy selection indexes on methane emissions

Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is a threat to the survival of humans and other organisms living on Earth. The greenhouse gases released from the dairy sector of New Zealand accounted for 18.2 Mt of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-eq) in 2016, mainly from methane generated by enteric fermentation in the rumen of milking cows and their replacement stock. A productivity commission established by the New Zealand government in 2018 estimated that methane emissions from livestock needed to be reduced from 2016 levels by 10 to 22% by 2050 (i.e., 2.8 to 6.1 million t lower), so as to restrict future increases in global temperature to less than 2°C. In this study, we evaluated genetic effects of 8 traits included in the New Zealand national dairy breeding objective, on 3 types of methane emissions metrics: gross methane emissions per dairy cow per year (E), methane emissions per hectare (EH), and methane emissions intensity per milk protein equivalents (EI), as carbon dioxide equivalents. These effects were then aligned with recent genetic changes in these traits brought about by breeding schemes, so that the overall genetic trend for each metric into the future was estimated. The results showed that EH and EI are currently being reduced at rates of -2.31 kg of CO₂-eq per hectare per cow per year (current average is 6,915 kg of CO₂-eq/ha per cow per year) and -0.04 kg of CO₂-eq per kg of milk protein equivalents per cow per year, respectively (current average is 9.7 kg of CO₂-eq/milk protein-eq per cow per year). These improvements directly reflect increased production efficiency through selection for farm profitability. If the pastureland area in New Zealand remains the same, at the same productivity and with no increase in supplementation rates from external land sources, in 20 years gross emissions would be reduced by only 0.6%, or 89 Mt. Increased production efficiency will likely result in corresponding changes to the stocking rate, to fully utilize the pasture resource available, and might further encourage a greater rate of intensification via supplementary feeding. Both consequences of current genetic selection could negate any benefits for the national greenhouse gas inventory. New selection criteria for reduced methane production are needed to help achieve New Zealand's national methane reduction targets.