One-Step Analysis for Listeria monocytogenes Growth in Ready-to-Eat Braised Beef at Dynamic and Static Conditions

This study aimed to estimate the growth parameters of Listeria monocytogenes growth in ready-to-eat (RTE) braised beef by one-step dynamic and static kinetic analysis. The Baranyi model and cardinal parameters model were integrated into a dynamic and static model to estimate the kinetic parameters under one dynamic condition (-20 to 40.0°C) and eight static conditions (4, 8, 15, 20, 30, 35, 37, and 40°C). Based on the dynamic and static methods, the respective dynamic and static results for estimated growth boundaries of L. monocytogenes in RTE braised beef were from -2.5 and -2.7°C to 40.5 and 40.7°C with optimal specific growth rates of 1.078 and 0.913 per h at temperatures of 35.7 and 35.0°C. Temperature effects on the specific growth rate and lag period were developed and used to simulate the change of the physiological state of inocula during the bacterial growth. Subsequently, three additional dynamic temperature profiles were implemented for external validation. The root mean square error of the model developed by dynamic regression (0.19 log CFU/g) is slightly better than that of the model developed by static regression (0.23 log CFU/g). Comparing the validation results, one-step dynamic analysis might be a preferable method for prediction, especially when the growth approaches the stationary phase. Generally, both one-step dynamic and static analyses could be used to accurately predict L. monocytogenes growth in RTE braised beef under fluctuating temperatures.