Development and validation of a clinical model to predict intraoperative hemodynamic instability in patients with...

Although currently the primary strategy for the treatment of pheochromocytomas is surgery, it is associated with a high risk of intraoperative hemodynamic instability (IHD), even with adequate preoperative medical preparation, which may result in life-threatening situations. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram for preoperative prediction of IHD related to pheochromocytoma surgery. The development cohort consisted of 283 patients with pheochromocytoma who underwent unilateral laparoscopic or open adrenaletomy at our center between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2016. The clinicopathological characteristics of each patient were recorded. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator binary logistic regression model was used for data dimension reduction and feature selection, while multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop the prediction model. An independent cohort consisting of 119 consecutive patients from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2018 was used for validation. The performance of the prediction model was assessed in regards to discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. The predictors of this model included body mass index, coronary heart disease, tumor size, and preoperative use of crystal/colloid fluid. For the validation cohort, the model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.767 (95% CI, 0.667-0.857) and good calibration (unreliability test, p = 0.852; Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p = 0.9309). Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model was clinically useful. This nomogram to facilitate preoperative individualized prediction of IHD in patients with pheochromocytoma may help to improve the perioperative strategy and treatment outcome.