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The Sensitivity of Euro-Atlantic Regimes to Model Horizontal Resolution.

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Increasing model resolution improves atmospheric regime simulation in climate models, a finding robust across multiple models. However, sufficient ensemble members are crucial to overcome sampling variability and fully capture regime characteristics.

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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric dynamics
  • Climate modeling
  • Euro-Atlantic winter weather

Background:

  • Quasi-persistent regimes influence Euro-Atlantic winter atmospheric dynamics.
  • General circulation models often inadequately simulate these regimes, particularly blocking events.
  • Previous research suggested higher model resolution might improve regime simulation, but this was not extensively tested.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of increased horizontal resolution on simulating atmospheric regimes.
  • To determine if improvements in regime structure are model-dependent or robust.
  • To assess the role of ensemble size in capturing regime characteristics.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of multiple general circulation models at varying horizontal resolutions.
  • Comparison of atmospheric regime structures across different model configurations.
  • Evaluation of sampling variability using multiple ensemble members.

Main Results:

  • Increased horizontal resolution robustly improves the simulation of atmospheric regime structure across multiple models.
  • High-resolution models exhibit more tightly clustered data for atmospheric regimes.
  • Improvements in other regime aspects are not guaranteed and are subject to sampling variability.

Conclusions:

  • Higher resolution is beneficial for simulating atmospheric regimes but does not guarantee complete improvement.
  • At least three ensemble members are necessary to reliably overcome sampling variability.
  • The positive effect of resolution on regime structure is a robust finding across different models.