Environmental factors and river network position allow prediction of benthic community assemblies: A model of...

The field of metacommunity studies is growing rapidly, including recent applications to river networks. Most of these studies have targeted a single river network but whether their findings are relevant to other river systems is unknown. This study investigated the influence of environmental, spatial and temporal parameters on the community structure of nematodes in the river networks of the Elbe and Rhine. We asked whether the variance in community structure was better explained by spatial variables representing the watercourse than by overland distances. After determining the patterns in the Elbe river network, we tested whether they also explained the Rhine data. The Elbe data were evaluated using a boosted regression tree analysis. The predictive ability of the model was then assessed using the Rhine data. In addition to strong temporal dynamics, environmental factors were more important than spatial factors in structuring riverine nematode communities. Community structure was more strongly influenced by watercourse than by Euclidean distances. Application of the model's predictions to the Rhine data correlated significantly with field observations. Our model shows that the consequences of changes in environmental factors or habitat connectivity for aquatic communities across different river networks are quantifiable.