Relative prey abundance and predator preference predict individual diet variation in prey-switching experiments

Individual diet specialization appears widespread and has several ecological ramifications. Hypotheses on the causes of diet specialization generally assume prey preferences differ among predator individuals. They then predict how the magnitude of diet variation should change when ecological factors (e.g., intraspecific competition) alter prey abundances. However, the magnitude of diet variation is expected to change with prey abundances due to stochasticity in the foraging process even if all predators share the same prey preferences. Here I show that the relative prey abundance where diet variation is maximized and the magnitudes of diet variation in prey switching experiments are predicted well by a simple stochastic foraging model based only on relative prey abundances and a shared relative prey preference among predators. These results suggest that the effects of stochasticity during foraging may confound studies of individual diet specialization if these effects are not accounted for in experimental design or interpretation. Furthermore, the stochastic foraging model provides simple baseline expectations for theoretical studies on the ecological consequences of diet variation and offers a way forward on quantitative predictions of how ecological factors influence the magnitude of diet variation when stochasticity during foraging and diet specialization occur simultaneously. Last, this study highlights the continued importance of integrating stochasticity into mechanistic ecological hypotheses.