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The Effect of Large-Capacity Magazine Bans on High-Fatality Mass Shootings, 1990-2017
Louis Klarevas1, Andrew Conner1, David Hemenway1
1Louis Klarevas is with the Teachers College, Columbia University, New York, NY. Andrew Conner is with the Frank H. Netter, MD, School of Medicine, Quinnipiac University, North Haven, CT. David Hemenway is with the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA.
American Journal of Public Health
|October 18, 2019
Summary
Large-capacity magazine (LCM) bans were associated with fewer high-fatality mass shootings and reduced deaths. States with LCM bans experienced significantly lower incidence and lethality rates from these events.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Public Health Policy
- Firearms Research
Background:
- High-fatality mass shootings represent a significant public safety concern in the United States.
- The role of firearm capacity, specifically large-capacity magazines (LCMs), in mass shooting events requires further investigation.
- Previous research indicates a potential link between LCMs and increased lethality in mass shootings.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the impact of large-capacity magazine (LCM) bans on the frequency of high-fatality mass shootings.
- To assess the effect of LCM bans on the lethality (number of deaths) of high-fatality mass shootings.
- To analyze the differential effects of federal versus state-level LCM bans.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of state panel data from 1990 to 2017, focusing on high-fatality mass shootings.
- Utilized logit regression to assess the relationship between LCM bans and the occurrence of mass shootings.
- Employed negative binomial analysis to evaluate the impact of LCM bans on the number of deaths, controlling for 10 variables and using state fixed effects.
Main Results:
- States without LCM bans had more than double the incidence rate of high-fatality mass shootings compared to states with bans.
- Attacks involving LCMs resulted in a 62% higher average death toll.
- Multivariate analyses confirmed that states without LCM bans experienced significantly more high-fatality mass shootings and higher death rates.
Conclusions:
- Large-capacity magazine (LCM) bans appear to be an effective policy in reducing the incidence of high-fatality mass shootings.
- LCM bans are also associated with a significant reduction in the number of fatalities during such events.
- The findings suggest that LCM restrictions can mitigate the severity and frequency of mass shooting incidents.
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