A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Systems Analysis
• Climate Change Adaptation
• Socio-economic Modeling

Background:

• Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) require robust storylines for policy-relevant insights.
• Global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) lack the spatial resolution and scope for regional agricultural studies.
• Sustainable futures necessitate tailored assessments addressing climate change impacts on agriculture.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a protocol for operationalizing European agriculture Shared Socio-economic Pathways (Eur-Agri-SSPs).
• To support IAAS by providing region-specific, high-resolution storylines.
• To enhance the quality and transparency of storyline development for agricultural assessments.

Main Methods:

• A science-driven, iterative process incorporating six quality criteria: plausibility, consistency (vertical/horizontal), salience, legitimacy, richness, and creativity.
• A nested approach to link global SSPs with regional agricultural perspectives, ensuring vertical consistency.
• Participatory and interdisciplinary methods with defined stakeholder engagement levels for each of the nine working steps.

Main Results:

• A transparent protocol detailing nine working steps for developing Eur-Agri-SSPs.
• Proposed methods and stakeholder engagement strategies to address methodological challenges.
• Demonstrated ability to link global SSPs with regional agricultural contexts while maintaining consistency and buy-in.

Conclusions:

• The Eur-Agri-SSPs protocol facilitates systematic and transparent development and evaluation of regional agricultural storylines.
• The protocol is transferable to other regions, sectors, and scales, supporting inter-comparisons of IAAS.
• This framework aids in generating sound information for policy and decision-making towards sustainable agriculture under climate change.