Climatic Niche Shift during Azolla filiculoides Invasion and Its Potential Distribution under Future Scenarios

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Invasive Species Biology
• Biogeography

Background:

• Understanding non-native species distributions is critical for preventing biological invasions.
• Azolla filiculoides, a free-floating macrophyte native to the Americas, has established invasive populations globally.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the potential global distribution of Azolla filiculoides under future climate change scenarios.
• To analyze niche overlap and potential niche shifts between native and invaded ranges of Azolla filiculoides.
• To identify vulnerable regions for future invasion by Azolla filiculoides.

Main Methods:

• Utilized species distribution models (SDMs) to project potential distributions.
• Employed niche equivalency tests to assess niche overlap.
• Incorporated future emission scenarios, global circulation models, and time periods for projections.

Main Results:

• Indicated a potential niche shift for Azolla filiculoides, suggesting adaptation to novel environmental conditions.
• Projected a global decrease in the potential distribution of Azolla filiculoides.
• Identified new vulnerable regions where Azolla filiculoides could potentially colonize.

Conclusions:

• Azolla filiculoides demonstrates adaptive capacity to climatic differences during invasion.
• Accurate species occurrence records from invaded areas are essential for robust invasion risk prediction.
• Proactive modeling is crucial for managing and preventing future biological invasions.