Habitat availability explains variation in climate-driven range shifts across multiple taxonomic groups

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Species range shifts are critical for persistence under climate change.
• Understanding variation in range shift rates among species is a key ecological challenge.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the drivers of variation in species range shift rates in response to climate warming.
• To determine the relative importance of habitat availability and climate change exposure in explaining range shift rates.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of 40 years of distribution data for 291 species across 13 invertebrate taxa in Britain.
• Statistical modeling to assess the interaction between habitat availability and climate change exposure at range margins.
• Comparison of the explanatory power of intrinsic traits (habitat specialization) versus extrinsic factors (habitat availability, climate suitability).

Main Results:

• Interactions between habitat availability and climate change exposure explained up to 50% of the variation in range shift rates.
• Habitat generalists showed faster expansion, but habitat availability was a stronger predictor of range shifts than specialization.
• Differences in habitat availability explained more variation than changes in climatic suitability for poleward expansions.

Conclusions:

• Future climate change vulnerability assessments must consider future habitat availability alongside climate sensitivity and exposure.
• Habitat restoration and protection are crucial for enhancing species' adaptive capacity to climate change.
• The interplay between habitat and climate significantly influences species' ability to shift their ranges.