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Dynamics of beneficial epidemics
Andrew Berdahl1,2, Christa Brelsford1,3,4, Caterina De Bacco1,5
1Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, 87501, USA.
Scientific Reports
|October 24, 2019
Summary
Beneficial contagions, like viruses or innovations, spread faster than detrimental ones. Horizontal transmission in biology and active spreading in social systems accelerate these beneficial epidemics.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Population Genetics
- Behavioral Science
- Social Network Dynamics
Background:
- Epidemics typically spread detrimental pathogens.
- Beneficial contagions, such as advantageous genetic elements or innovations, can also spread epidemically.
- Understanding the distinct dynamics of beneficial versus detrimental epidemics is crucial.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how the spread dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics differ from those of detrimental epidemics.
- To model the spread of beneficial contagions using distinct theoretical frameworks.
- To identify key mechanisms driving the rapid dissemination of beneficial elements.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a breadth-first modeling approach.
- Developed three distinct theoretical models: population genetics, behavioral epidemiology, and dynamic social networks.
- Analyzed the spread patterns of horizontally-transmissible elements, infections increasing connectivity, and network preferences.
Main Results:
- Horizontally-transmissible elements conferring fitness advantages spread superexponentially, outperforming beneficial mutations.
- Infections promoting increased host connectivity resulted in superexponential population fixation.
- In social networks, preferences for global infection accelerated spread, while local assortativity hindered it.
Conclusions:
- Beneficial biological and social epidemics exhibit rapid spread dynamics.
- Horizontal transmission facilitates superexponential spread in biological systems.
- Active spreading behaviors in social systems and specific network preferences drive accelerated epidemic fixation.
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