Update of a clinical prediction model for serious bacterial infections in preschool children by adding a

Chantal van Houten1, Josephine Sophia van de Maat2, Christiana Naaktgeboren3

  • 1Paediatric infectious diseases, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

BMJ Paediatrics Open
|October 25, 2019
PubMed

Insights

A new combination assay improved the Feverkidstool's accuracy in identifying serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in children. This updated model helps rule out bacterial infections, reducing unnecessary antibiotic use in low-to-moderate risk cases.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric infectious diseases
  • Diagnostic test development
  • Biomarker research

Background:

  • Accurate diagnosis of serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in febrile children is crucial.
  • Existing diagnostic models like Feverkidstool require optimization for improved accuracy.
  • Novel biomarkers may enhance the ability to differentiate bacterial from viral infections.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate if a novel combination assay can improve the diagnostic accuracy of the Feverkidstool for identifying pneumonia and other SBIs in children.
  • To assess the performance of an updated Feverkidstool model incorporating a new biomarker panel.

Main Methods:

  • An observational, double-blind diagnostic study was conducted across six hospitals in Israel and the Netherlands.
  • 591 children (1-60 months) with respiratory infections or fever were enrolled.
  • The Feverkidstool model was recalibrated and updated by replacing C-reactive protein (CRP) with a combination assay (tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand, interferon-gamma induced protein-10, and CRP).

Main Results:

  • The original Feverkidstool showed good discrimination for SBIs (c-statistic for pneumonia: 0.84, other SBIs: 0.82).
  • Replacing CRP with the combination assay significantly improved diagnostic ability (c-statistic for pneumonia: 0.89, other SBIs: 0.91).
  • The updated model particularly enhanced SBIs diagnosis in children with low-to-moderate risk estimates.

Conclusions:

  • The updated Feverkidstool, utilizing a combination assay, demonstrates improved diagnostic accuracy for pneumonia and other SBIs in febrile children.
  • This enhanced model shows significant potential for ruling out bacterial infections, thereby reducing unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions in children with lower predicted risk.
Abstract

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