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Chain effects of clean water: The Mills-Reincke phenomenon in early 20th-century Japan
Tatsuki Inoue1, Kota Ogasawara2
1Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan.
Abstract:
This study explores the validity of chain effects of clean water, which are known as the "Mills-Reincke phenomenon," in early 20-century Japan. Recent studies have reported that water purifications systems are responsible for huge contributions to human capital. Although some studies have investigated the instantaneous effects of water-supply systems in pre-war Japan, little is known about the chain effects of these systems. By analyzing city-level cause-specific mortality data from 1922 to 1940, we find that a decline in typhoid deaths by one per 1000 people decreased the risk of death due to non-waterborne diseases such as tuberculosis and pneumonia by 0.742-2.942 per 1000 people. Our finding suggests that the observed Mills-Reincke phenomenon could have resulted in the relatively rapid decline in the mortality rate in early 20-century Japan.
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