Differences in negative predictive value of prostate MRI based in men with suspected or known cancer

To compare the negative predictive value (NPV) of multiparametric MRI for Gleason score (GS) ≥ 3+4 cancer and evaluate predictors of these tumors in men with suspected disease and under active surveillance (AS).

This retrospective study included 38 men with suspected prostate cancer and 38 under AS with scans assigned PI-RADS v2 scores 1 or 2 between May 2016 and September 2017. Biopsy results were no cancer, GS = 3+3, or GS ≥ 3+4. Pre-MRI PSA, gland volume, and PSA density were recorded. Chi-square, equality of proportions, and logistic regressions were used to analyze the data.

Intermediate to high-grade cancer was found in 12.8% (95% CI = 2.3-23.3) and 35.9% (95% CI = 20.8-50.9) of men with suspected cancer, and under AS (p = 0.02), respectively. The NPV for GS ≥ 3+4 were 87.2% (suspected cancer; 76.7-97.7) and 64.1% (AS; 49.0-79.2). In neither group PSA significantly predicted cancer grade (p = 0.75 and 0.63). Although it did not reach conventional statistical significance, PSA density was a good predictor of cancer grade in men with suspected disease (p = 0.06), but not under AS (p = 0.62).

The NPV of multiparametric MRI for GS ≥ 3+4 is higher in men with suspected prostate cancer than in men under AS. PSA density ≤ 0.15 improved the prediction of intermediate to high-grade disease in patients without known cancer.