Predictive value of a nomogram for melanomas with brain metastases at initial diagnosis

Estimation of incidence and prognosis of melanomas with brain metastases (MBM) at initial diagnosis based on a large cohort is lacking in current research. This study aims to construct an effective prognostic nomogram for newly diagnosed MBM.

Patients diagnosed with melanomas from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program between 2010 and 2014 were enrolled in our study. Risk factors predicting brain metastases (BM) were identified using logistic regression analysis. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify prognostic factors of overall survival (OS). Nomogram for estimating 6-, 9-, and 12-month OS was established based on Cox regression analysis. The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomogram were tested using C statistics, calibration plots, and Kaplan-Meier curves.

Sixty-two thousand three hundred and sixty-nine melanoma patients were enrolled, including 928 with BM. Sex, marital status, insurance status, subsite, surgery of primary sites, radiation, chemotherapy, bone metastases, liver metastases, and lung metastases were associated with MBM at initial diagnosis. On multivariable Cox regression, the following eight variables were incorporated in the prediction of OS: age, unmarried status, absence of surgery to primary sites or unknown, absence of radiation or unknown, absence of chemotherapy or unknown, with bone metastases, with liver metastases, and with lung metastases. The nomogram showed good predictive ability as indicated by discriminative ability and calibration, with the C statistics of 0.716 (95% CI, 0.695-0.737).

The incidence and prognosis of MBM patients were well estimated in this study based on a large cohort. The nomogram performed well and could be a useful tool to predict prognosis.