Examining the Temporal Demand and Sustainability of Copper in China

A comprehensive study is carried out to determine (1) the annual historical demand and supply, (2) the annual prospective demand, and (3) the carrying capacity and future sustainability of copper resources in China. The results of the first analysis show that both the demand and the supply have substantially increased since 2000 after remaining relatively minute for the period from 1950 to 2000. By 2015, the per capita total and domestic demands had reached 7.6 and 5.4 kg, respectively. The annual demand prospects suggest that the copper demand will peak in 2030 and either stabilize or marginally drop thereafter. This was found to be the case for all population variants and demand growth rates that were considered herein, with the exception of the "stable scenario". Under the considered scenarios, the domestic demand in the year 2050 is predicted to fall by 6.7-15 million metric tons (Mt), while the total demand will likely fall by 9.4-21.2 Mt. The projected drastic increase in the cumulative primary demand suggests that China should pursue more industrially sustainable options. If the current trends continue, demand will likely surpass even the projected reserve base of 2050 sometime from 2025 to 2035 unless necessary actions to change the course are initiated as soon as possible. Chinese efforts to promote recycling in recent decades have been admirable but are not sufficient to meet the primary demand, thus leaving a large proportion of the demand to be met using imports. Thus, to reduce the primary copper imports, it is desirable to increase recycling rates to 60-70%. The shortcomings of the domestic recycling industry include poor end-of-life collection and an elastic policy framework. These issues merit attention in the short term to increase the long-term sustainability of copper resources in China.