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Investigating the Relationship between Sea Surface Chlorophyll and Major Features of the South China Sea with Satellite Information
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On spatial conditional extremes for ocean storm severity.

R Shooter1, E Ross2, J Tawn3

  • 1STOR-i Centre for Doctoral Training, Department of Mathematics and Statistics Lancaster University Lancaster UK.

Environmetrics
|November 5, 2019
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a new model for spatial extreme value analysis, improving understanding of ocean storm severity. The model reveals how storm dependence decays with distance in the North Sea, offering insights into extreme weather patterns.

Keywords:
conditional extremesnonstationarysignificant wave heightspatial dependence

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Statistics
  • Oceanography

Background:

  • Understanding spatial dependence in extreme environmental events is crucial for risk assessment.
  • Existing models like max-stable processes have limitations in conceptual simplicity and flexibility for extremal dependence.
  • Conditional extremes methodology provides a framework for analyzing spatial extremes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a novel model for conditional spatial extremes.
  • To estimate the extremal dependence of ocean storm severity (significant wave height) in the North Sea.
  • To investigate how this dependence changes with distance and geographical orientation.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a new model for conditional spatial dependence, building on Heffernan and Tawn's work.
  • Employed a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation.
  • Analyzed significant wave height data along East-West and North-South transects in the Northern North Sea and Central North Sea.

Main Results:

  • The conditional extremes "linear slope" parameter (α) decays approximately exponentially with distance for significant wave height on a Laplace scale.
  • The decay of mean dependence is faster in the Central North Sea compared to the Northern North Sea.
  • The East-West transect in the Northern North Sea exhibits the greatest persistence of mean dependence.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed model offers a flexible and conceptually straightforward approach to spatial extreme value analysis.
  • Spatial dependence of ocean storm severity decreases with distance, with regional variations.
  • The alignment of transects with storm propagation directions influences the persistence of dependence.