Outcome Bias in Clinical Negligence Medico-legal Cases

Independent medical experts provide reports in clinical negligence claims brought against doctors and other health care professionals. They are asked to provide an opinion on whether the doctor has breached their duty of care to the patient, commonly described as the "Bolam Principle". By the time a patient litigates against a health care professional, the clinical sequence and outcome are known. Experts provide their opinions with the benefit of this knowledge. To determine whether knowledge of the outcome affects the expert's opinion, 42 independent general practice experts were asked to indicate whether a general practitioner had breached their duty of care in six clinical case scenarios. 21 were told the clinical outcome. Experts who knew the outcome were less likely to support the general practitioner's course of action, although this did not reach statistical significance. General practitioners demonstrated considerable "dove" or "hawk" variability when giving opinions on the same scenario.