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Emerging human infectious diseases of aquatic origin: a comparative biogeographic approach using Bayesian spatial
Soushieta Jagadesh1,2, Marine Combe3, Pierre Couppié4,5
1ISEM, UMR226, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, IRD, EPHE, 34090, Montpellier, France. soushieta.jagadesh@ird.fr.
International Journal of Health Geographics
|November 8, 2019
Summary
Emerging infectious diseases like leptospirosis and Buruli Ulcer are linked to environmental factors. A biogeographic approach effectively maps their spatial distribution, driven by climate and landscape predictors.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Epidemiology
- Disease ecology
Background:
- Human-driven environmental changes increase unpredictable disease outbreaks.
- Analytical tools are needed to map and predict emerging infectious disease spatial distribution.
- Identifying biogeographic drivers is crucial for understanding disease emergence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify and compare local and global biogeographic predictors of leptospirosis and Buruli Ulcer (BU).
- To analyze landscape and climate factors determining the spatial structure of these diseases.
Main Methods:
- Utilized hospital-confirmed case data for leptospirosis (2007-2017) and BU (1969-2017) in French Guiana.
- Employed non-spatial and spatial Bayesian regression modeling.
- Incorporated landscape and climate predictor variables.
Main Results:
- Both diseases' distributions depend on environmental predictors: elevation, wetness index, cropland proximity, and minimum temperature.
- Leptospirosis showed wide distribution, while BU was restricted to coastal riverbeds.
- Despite similar aquatic niches, the spatial structures of leptospirosis and BU differed.
Conclusions:
- A biogeographic approach is effective for mapping and predicting emerging disease geographic distribution.
- Ecological scale analysis reveals spatial dependence on topography, land cover, and climate.
- This approach aids in understanding and managing diseases influenced by environmental factors.
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