Ten-year survival and recurrence of hepatocellular cancer

Long-term survival after hepatocellular cancer (HCC) is difficult to achieve likely related to recurrence. This study aimed to identify factors that were predictive of 10-year survival after the diagnosis of HCC.

In a prospectively collected database of 1374 HCC cases (1993-2019), we identified 70 patients who survived over 10 years regardless of treatment. We then identified 164 patients in the entire cohort who either had liver resection or transplant, and died before 10 years. Demographics, tumor characteristics, treatment, recurrence and treatment of recurrence were compared.

Of the 10-year survivors, 36 underwent transplant, 27 had liver resection and 7 patients had only locoregional therapy. Compared to the non-survivors, the 10-year survivors were younger and had fewer comorbidities or recurrence, smaller tumor size, lower AST, ALT, AFP, platelets, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Multivariate analysis showed only age and diabetes to be negative predictors. Recurrence occurred in 24 survivors (34.3%) with mean time to recurrence with standard deviation 57.1 ± 42.6 months compared to 80 non-survivors (48.7%) with mean time to recurrence of 15.3 ± 14.8 months. For hepatic resection, 10-year survivors had longer time to recurrence compared to non-survivors (median: 31.3 months).

Long-term survivors mostly occur after resection or transplant, but 10% of our cohort survived 10 years with only locoregional therapy. Underlying health status maybe an important predictor of 10-year survival for patients receiving liver resections. Recurrence of HCC occurs in both 10-year survivors and non-survivors, but later recurrence with aggressive treatment of the recurrence may allow for 10-year survival.