Short and long-term mortality in elderly patients with suspected not confirmed pulmonary embolism

Most patients evaluated for suspected pulmonary embolism(PE) conclude the Emergency Department(ED) work-up with a diagnosis of PE not confirmed(PE excluded;PE-E). We aimed to investigate the clinical features, short and long-term mortality, and prognostic factors for death in elderly with PE-E, and to compare these figures with those of patients with PE confirmed(PE-C).

Consecutive patients ≥65 years old evaluated in the ED for clinically suspected hemodynamically stable acute PE were included in this retrospective cohort study.

Study population: 657 patients with suspected PE, PE-C:162(24.65%). When compared with PE-C, patients with PE-E presented a higher prevalence of chronic cardiopulmonary disease (17.37% vs 8.02%, p = 0.003), a lower prevalence of pulse rate >110 (13.13% vs 25.93%; p<0.001), of arterial oxygen saturation <90% (16.16% vs. 25.93%; p = 0.007) and of hospitalized patients (52.93% vs 98.15%; p < 0.001). Thirty-day, 90-day, 1-year, 2-year and 5-year overall mortality was 8.83%, 15.98%, 23.59%, 29.68%, and 51.09%, respectively, differences between PE-E and PE-C non statistically significant. Among patients with PE-E, multivariate analysis showed that simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index score>0 was associated with higher short and long-term mortality (30-day:HR:5.31,p = 0.029; 5 year:HR:2.18, p < 0.001), meanwhile comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index>0) only with higher long-term mortality (30-day: HR:1.60, p = 0.342; 5 year: HR:1.41, p = 0.038).

In real world haemodinamically stable elderly patients evaluated in the ED for suspected PE, short and long-term mortality was markedly high regardless whether PE was confirmed or excluded. At the time to set management and follow up strategies, elderly patients with PE excluded should not be considered a low-risk population.