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A statistical forecasting approach to metapopulation viability analysis.

Paige E Howell1, Blake R Hossack2, Erin Muths3

  • 1Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, 180 East Green Street, Georgia, 30602, USA.

Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
|November 12, 2019
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Statistical metapopulation viability analysis (MPVA) forecasts low extinction risk for the Chiricahua leopard frog. Pond restoration significantly reduces extinction risk and uncertainty, aiding conservation planning.

Keywords:
Lithobates chiricahuensisChiricahua leopard frogdroughtlandscape resistanceoccupancyrestorationspatiotemporal models

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Population Dynamics

Background:

  • Reliable forecasts of environmental change impacts on population viability are crucial for conservation.
  • Conventional population viability analysis (PVA) often neglects parameter uncertainty.
  • Statistical PVAs offer improved forecasting but are rarely applied in metapopulation contexts requiring spatial inference.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To conduct a statistical metapopulation viability analysis (MPVA) for the Chiricahua leopard frog.
  • To forecast population responses to landscape heterogeneity, drought, and management actions.
  • To evaluate pond restoration options for reducing extinction risk.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized 11 years of data for a spatially explicit statistical MPVA.
  • Modeled Chiricahua leopard frog metapopulation dynamics.
  • Assessed various environmental scenarios and pond restoration strategies.

Main Results:

  • Metapopulation extinction risk was forecasted to be <4% over 50 years, with high uncertainty.
  • Without pond restoration, extinction risk was 3.9% by 2066.
  • Restoring six ponds reduced extinction risk to <1% and decreased uncertainty.

Conclusions:

  • Maintaining year-round ponds and controlling invasive predators can mitigate drought and stochasticity impacts.
  • Spatially explicit statistical forecasting for MPVA is valuable for conservation planning.
  • Pond restoration is an effective strategy for enhancing Chiricahua leopard frog metapopulation viability.