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Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900-2018.

Aslak Grinsted1, Peter Ditlevsen2, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen2

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Global warming is increasing hurricane damage, with a new method revealing a clear upward trend since 1900. This improved analysis helps assess climate change impacts on extreme weather events and hurricane risks.

Keywords:
damagehurricanelossnormalizationtropical cyclone

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Area of Science:

  • Climatology and Disaster Risk Assessment
  • Meteorology and Environmental Science

Background:

  • Hurricanes are the most destructive U.S. natural disasters, with economic damage trends historically influenced by wealth increases.
  • Normalization is crucial for comparing storm destructiveness across different times and locations.
  • Previous evidence for increasing normalized hurricane damage since 1900 has been debated.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a more reliable record of normalized hurricane damage since 1900.
  • To investigate the link between global warming and increasing hurricane damage trends.
  • To improve risk assessments for hurricane-related disasters.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a novel normalization scheme based on an equivalent area of total destruction.
  • Analyzed a historical record of normalized hurricane damage from 1900 onwards.
  • Examined the frequency of major damage events in existing normalized damage records.

Main Results:

  • The new method yielded an improved signal-to-noise ratio compared to previous normalization techniques.
  • A significant positive trend in normalized hurricane damage was identified.
  • This trend is attributed to detectable changes in extreme storms linked to global warming.

Conclusions:

  • The equivalent area of total destruction provides a more robust measure for climate-related changes in extreme weather.
  • The findings support the hypothesis that global warming is increasing hurricane destructiveness.
  • This research offers a more reliable basis for hurricane disaster risk assessments.