Malaria risk map for India based on climate, ecology and geographical modelling

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Epidemiology
• Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Background:

• Traditional malaria risk mapping often overlooks crucial ecological factors like topography and vegetation.
• A holistic approach is needed to accurately assess malaria transmission risk.

Purpose of the Study:

• To delineate malaria transmission risk zones for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in India.
• To integrate topographic, climatic, and vegetation data into a comprehensive risk model.
• To identify areas requiring targeted malaria control interventions.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a multi-criteria decision analysis framework within a GIS environment.
• Incorporated seven geo-ecological indicators: temperature, humidity, rainfall, forest cover, soil, slope, altitude, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).
• Employed analytical hierarchical process for indicator weighting and fuzzy logic for climate suitability assessment.

Main Results:

• Classified India into five malaria transmission risk zones (very high to very low).
• Identified approximately 13% of India, encompassing endemic districts in Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Tripura, Assam, Meghalaya, and Manipur, as very high risk.
• Found higher suitability for Plasmodium vivax transmission than Plasmodium falciparum in the Himalayan region.

Conclusions:

• The developed spatio-ecological model effectively maps malaria risk by integrating diverse environmental factors.
• Low to moderate risk zones were identified as prone to malaria outbreaks, necessitating enhanced surveillance.
• Findings support improved surveillance and targeted interventions by India's National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme.