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The unexpected consequences of generic entry.

Micael Castanheira1, Carmine Ornaghi2, Georges Siotis3

  • 1ECARES (Université Libre de Bruxelles - SBS-EM) and CEPR, Belgium.

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|November 18, 2019
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Generic drug entry often decreases the market share of the original brand, a phenomenon analyzed in this study. This market anomaly is more probable when competing patented drugs have limited differentiation.

Keywords:
Consumer choiceGeneric entryNon-price competitionPharmaceutical industry

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Area of Science:

  • Pharmaceutical Economics
  • Market Analysis
  • Health Policy

Background:

  • Generic drugs offer significant cost savings compared to brand-name medications.
  • Despite lower prices, the introduction of generic drugs frequently leads to a reduction in the market share of the originator molecule.
  • This observed market behavior presents an economic anomaly requiring systematic investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To conduct the first systematic analysis of the market anomaly where generic entry reduces the quantity market share of the molecule losing exclusivity.
  • To develop and present a theoretical model explaining the market equilibrium shifts before and after generic entry.
  • To identify specific conditions that trigger a decrease in market share following generic competition.

Main Methods:

  • Econometric analysis of a large dataset of prescription drugs in the US (1994Q1-2003Q4).
  • Development of a theoretical market model to predict equilibrium dynamics.
  • Empirical testing of model predictions regarding market share changes and factors influencing them.

Main Results:

  • Generic entry was found to cause a statistically significant drop in the quantity market share for molecules losing exclusivity.
  • The study identified precise conditions under which this market share reduction occurs.
  • A key finding indicates that reduced market share is more likely when remaining patent-protected drugs exhibit low horizontal differentiation.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides a robust explanation for the counterintuitive market phenomenon of declining market share post-generic entry.
  • The theoretical model successfully predicts market dynamics, with empirical validation.
  • Market competition strategies, particularly the degree of product differentiation among remaining branded drugs, play a crucial role in the impact of generic entry.