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Modelling the optimal target age group for seasonal influenza vaccination in Japan

Shinya Tsuzuki1, Marc Baguelin2, Richard Pebody3

  • 1Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan; Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium; Respiratory Diseases Department, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom.

Vaccine
|November 19, 2019
PubMed

Insights

Targeting children under 15 for influenza vaccination in Japan is more cost-effective than vaccinating the elderly. This strategy is predicted to significantly reduce influenza cases and offers a better return on investment for public health.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Health Economics

Background:

  • Current influenza vaccination programs in Japan primarily target older individuals.
  • Influenza epidemics are often driven by transmission among children.
  • There is a need to identify the most cost-effective vaccination strategy for Japan.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine the most cost-effective age group for a seasonal influenza vaccination program in Japan.
  • To compare the epidemiological and economic impact of targeting different age groups.

Main Methods:

  • A deterministic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model was developed using data from 2012/13 to 2014/15 influenza seasons.
  • Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods was employed for parameter estimation.
  • Cost-effectiveness analyses were performed from the perspective of a public healthcare payer.

Main Results:

  • A strategy targeting children under 15 was projected to reduce cases by 6,382,345 compared to the current approach.
  • Targeting the elderly (over 49 years) was expected to reduce cases by 693,206.
  • The children-targeted scenario yielded a negative incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), indicating high cost-effectiveness, while the elderly-targeted scenario exceeded the willingness-to-pay threshold (50,000 USD/QALY).

Conclusions:

  • Vaccinating children under 15 is predicted to have a substantially larger epidemiological impact than vaccinating the elderly.
  • Targeting younger populations for influenza vaccination represents a more cost-effective public health intervention in Japan.
Abstract

Keywords:
Cost-effectiveness analysisInfluenzaJapanMathematical modelVaccination policy

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