Climate-Water Adaptation for Future US Electricity Infrastructure

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Energy systems analysis
• Climate change adaptation

Background:

• Electricity capacity expansion planning traditionally overlooks climate-water constraints.
• Future climate-water conditions are projected to increase electricity demand and limit power production and transmission.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply an integrated modeling approach for projecting U.S. power system configurations under climate-water constraints.
• To assess the impact of climate-water adaptation on electricity capacity needs, infrastructure costs, and grid reliability.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an iterative modeling and data exchange platform integrating climate-driven hydrological, thermal power plant, and capacity expansion models.
• Compared projections from a novel approach incorporating climate-water feasibility checks against traditional modeling methods.

Main Results:

• Initial projections show economic drivers favoring renewables and natural gas, reducing reliance on water-intensive plants.
• Climate-adjusted projections indicate a need for 5.3-12.0% more national capacity, costing an additional $125-143 billion.
• Adaptation transitions enhance grid performance, lower water use and emissions, and improve reliability.

Conclusions:

• Incorporating climate-water impacts into power system planning is crucial for ensuring future grid reliability.
• Adaptation strategies, driven by renewables and natural gas, can mitigate climate risks while supporting climate change mitigation.
• Near and long-term electricity generation planning decisions involve significant trade-offs with climate and water implications.