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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Published on: March 31, 2023

Climate-Water Adaptation for Future US Electricity Infrastructure.

Ariel Miara^1,2, Stuart M Cohen², Jordan Macknick²

¹Advanced Science Research Center at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York , New York , New York 10031 , United States.

Environmental Science & Technology

|November 21, 2019

Summary

Future climate conditions will strain electricity systems. Integrating climate-water impacts into capacity planning ensures grid reliability and requires increased infrastructure investment, primarily in renewables and natural gas.

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Area of Science:

Environmental science
Energy systems analysis
Climate change adaptation

Background:

Electricity capacity expansion planning traditionally overlooks climate-water constraints.
Future climate-water conditions are projected to increase electricity demand and limit power production and transmission.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and apply an integrated modeling approach for projecting U.S. power system configurations under climate-water constraints.
To assess the impact of climate-water adaptation on electricity capacity needs, infrastructure costs, and grid reliability.

Main Methods:

Utilized an iterative modeling and data exchange platform integrating climate-driven hydrological, thermal power plant, and capacity expansion models.
Compared projections from a novel approach incorporating climate-water feasibility checks against traditional modeling methods.

Main Results:

Initial projections show economic drivers favoring renewables and natural gas, reducing reliance on water-intensive plants.
Climate-adjusted projections indicate a need for 5.3-12.0% more national capacity, costing an additional $125-143 billion.
Adaptation transitions enhance grid performance, lower water use and emissions, and improve reliability.

Conclusions:

Incorporating climate-water impacts into power system planning is crucial for ensuring future grid reliability.
Adaptation strategies, driven by renewables and natural gas, can mitigate climate risks while supporting climate change mitigation.
Near and long-term electricity generation planning decisions involve significant trade-offs with climate and water implications.