Distinguishing target biases and strategic guesses in visual working memory

Previous studies have shown that when there are statistical regularities in the items stored in visual working memory, the responses are biased toward the ensemble average. This statistical-regularity-induced bias could happen in two ways: (1) a target bias, where the individual memory representations are pulled toward the ensemble average; or (2) a strategic guess, for items that are not memorized, other information in the ensemble (e.g., another item) is reported as a substitute. Here, these two mechanisms are distinguished on the basis of a three-part model (target responses + swap responses + random guesses; e.g., Bays, Catalao, & Husain, 2009, Journal of Vision, 9, 7). The strategic guess is operationalized as swap responses, whereas the target bias is reflected by a bias parameter in the target responses. This model was applied on 8 data sets (22 observers each). In this model, contributions of target biases and strategic guesses can be clearly distinguished from each other because they lead to distinctive patterns in the distribution of responses. In the present results, strategic guesses always contributed substantially to the statistical-regularity-induced biases, whereas target biases were limited to specific conditions. All in all, the Bayesian inference in visual working memory is much more limited than what is previously advocated.