Optimization of management strategies for reducing nitrogen loading in China
Shanshan Hua1, Xin He2, Chunmiao Zheng3
1School of Environment and Energy, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Pollution Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China.
The Science of the Total Environment
|November 27, 2019
Summary
Nitrogen (N) loading in China has increased significantly over 60 years due to human activities. Future N management strategies should prioritize 2031-2040 for optimal results, considering population growth.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Ecology
- Agricultural Science
Background:
- Terrestrial nitrogen (N) loading has risen due to increased anthropogenic activities.
- Accurate quantification of N loading is crucial for effective environmental management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the relationship between N loading and human activities in China's watersheds.
- To optimize long-term N loading management strategies using portfolio optimization.
Main Methods:
- Statistical modeling to link N loading with anthropogenic drivers across 211 Chinese watersheds.
- Portfolio optimization model to determine optimal allocation of management efforts over three future decades.
- Analysis of population growth scenarios' influence on N loading management.
Main Results:
- N loading in China increased by approximately 1 Tg N/year from 1949-2010.
- Optimal management effort allocation for 2021-2050 suggests 28.55% for 2021-2030, 71.45% for 2031-2040, and 0% for 2041-2050.
- Future population growth scenarios significantly impact N loading management outcomes.
Conclusions:
- Long-term N loading trends in China necessitate strategic management.
- A phased approach to N management, concentrating efforts in the second decade (2031-2040), is optimal under fixed expenditure.
- Population dynamics are a key factor in planning future N loading mitigation efforts.
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