Estimating Representative Group Intrinsic Circadian Period from Illuminance-Response Curve Data

The human circadian pacemaker entrains to the 24-h day, but interindividual differences in properties of the pacemaker, such as intrinsic period, affect chronotype and mediate responses to challenges to the circadian system, such as shift work and jet lag, and the efficacy of therapeutic interventions such as light therapy. Robust characterization of circadian properties requires desynchronization of the circadian system from the rest-activity cycle, and these forced desynchrony protocols are very time and resource intensive. However, circadian protocols designed to derive the relationship between light intensity and phase shift, which is inherently affected by intrinsic period, may be applied more broadly. To exploit this relationship, we applied a mathematical model of the human circadian pacemaker with a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation algorithm to estimate the representative group intrinsic period for a group of participants using their collective illuminance-response curve data. We first validated this methodology using simulated illuminance-response curve data in which the intrinsic period was known. Over a physiological range of intrinsic periods, this method accurately estimated the representative intrinsic period of the group. We also applied the method to previously published experimental data describing the illuminance-response curve for a group of healthy adult participants. We estimated the study participants' representative group intrinsic period to be 24.26 and 24.27 h using uniform and normal priors, respectively, consistent with estimates of the average intrinsic period of healthy adults determined using forced desynchrony protocols. Our results establish an approach to estimate a population's representative intrinsic period from illuminance-response curve data, thereby facilitating the characterization of intrinsic period across a broader range of participant populations than could be studied using forced desynchrony protocols. Future applications of this approach may improve the understanding of demographic differences in the intrinsic circadian period.