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Streamflow variations across the Andes (18°-55°S) during the instrumental era
M H Masiokas1, L Cara2, R Villalba2
1Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CCT- CONICET Mendoza, C.C. 330, (5500), Mendoza, Argentina. mmasiokas@mendoza-conicet.gob.ar.
Scientific Reports
|December 1, 2019
Summary
Southern Andes streamflow is driven by eight key variability patterns, with significant drying trends in some regions and wetting in others. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences runoff, but other climate indices have limited predictive power.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Hydrology
- Andean environmental science
Background:
- Southern Andean rivers are vital for ecosystems and human activities in Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia.
- Understanding streamflow variability is crucial for water resource management in these regions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify and explain the dominant patterns of streamflow variability in the southern Andes.
- To assess the influence of large-scale climate drivers on Andean streamflow.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of ca. 75% of streamflow variance using spatially coherent patterns.
- Multivariate regression analyses correlating streamflow with climate indices (ENSO, Antarctic, North Pacific).
Main Results:
- Eight dominant patterns explain most streamflow variance.
- Observed trends include drying in northern Chile and central Patagonia, and wetting in northwestern Argentina and southern Bolivia.
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predicts 20-45% of annual runoff variability between 28° and 46°S.
- Antarctic and North Pacific indices show limited predictive skill for most of the region.
Conclusions:
- Streamflow in the southern Andes is characterized by distinct spatial patterns of variability and trends.
- ENSO is a significant, though not sole, driver of interannual streamflow fluctuations.
- Further research is needed to fully understand the complex ocean-atmospheric forcings on Andean hydrology.
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