A novel algorithm to predict bone changes in the mouse tibia properties under physiological conditions

Understanding how bone adapts to mechanical stimuli is fundamental for optimising treatments against musculoskeletal diseases in preclinical studies, but the contribution of physiological loading to bone adaptation in mouse tibia has not been quantified so far. In this study, a novel mechanistic model to predict bone adaptation based on physiological loading was developed and its outputs were compared with longitudinal scans of the mouse tibia. Bone remodelling was driven by the mechanical stimuli estimated from micro-FEA models constructed from micro-CT scans of C57BL/6 female mice (N = 5) from weeks 14 and 20 of age, to predict bone changes in week 16 or 22. Parametric analysis was conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the models to subject-specific or averaged parameters, parameters from week 14 or week 20, and to strain energy density (SED) or maximum principal strain (ε_maxprinc). The results at week 20 showed no significant difference in bone densitometric properties between experimental and predicted images across the tibia for both stimuli, and 59% and 47% of the predicted voxels matched with the experimental sites in apposition and resorption, respectively. The model was able to reproduce regions of bone apposition in both periosteal and endosteal surfaces (70% and 40% for SED and ε_maxprinc, respectively), but it under-predicted the experimental sites of resorption by over 85%. This study shows for the first time the potential of a subject-specific mechanoregulation algorithm to predict bone changes in a mouse model under physiological loading. Nevertheless, the weak predictions of resorption suggest that a combined stimulus or biological stimuli should be accounted for in the model.