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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jan 2, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
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Is half the world's population really below 'replacement-rate'?

Stuart Gietel-Basten1, Sergei Scherbov2

  • 1Division of Social Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, P.R. China.

Plos One
|December 3, 2019
PubMed
Summary

This study corrects how demographers measure fertility rates, calculating the global population below the actual replacement rate of fertility (RRF), not the common 2.1 estimate. This refined method reveals significant future population trends, especially for India.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population Studies
  • Fertility Analysis

Background:

  • Demographers frequently estimate global populations relative to the replacement rate of fertility (RRF).
  • Previous estimations often relied on oversimplified or incorrect assumptions about the true RRF.
  • The commonly used benchmark of 2.1 for total fertility rate (TFR) is often misapplied.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To accurately calculate the proportion of the world's population in countries with observed period TFR below their specific RRF.
  • To contrast this calculation with the widely used, yet potentially inaccurate, 2.1 benchmark.
  • To highlight the impact of using precise RRF calculations on future population projections.

Main Methods:

  • Calculated country-specific RRF based on current demographic evidence.
  • Compared observed period total fertility rates (TFR) against these calculated RRFs.
  • Analyzed population proportions based on this refined methodology.

Main Results:

  • Identified a significant portion of the global population living in countries with TFR below their respective RRF.
  • Observed modest differences at the national level when comparing TFR to 2.1 versus RRF in many periods.
  • Projected a significant divergence in near-future population trends, particularly influenced by India's fertility and mortality trajectories.

Conclusions:

  • The study corrects the record on global fertility rate assessments by employing accurate RRF calculations.
  • Using the correct RRF protocol is crucial for precise demographic analysis and future population predictions.
  • The findings underscore the importance of nuanced fertility rate measurement for understanding global population dynamics.