Potential of machine learning methods to identify patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation

Aim: Nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke however many patients are diagnosed after onset. This study assessed the potential of machine-learning algorithms to detect NVAF. Materials & methods: A retrospective database study using a Japanese claims database. Patients with and without NVAF were selected. 41 variables were included in different classification algorithms. Results: Machine learning algorithms identified NVAF with an area under the curve of >0.86; corresponding sensitivity/specificity was also high. The stacking model which combined multiple algorithms outperformed single-model approaches (area under the curve ≥0.90, sensitivity/specificity ≥0.80/0.82), although differences were small. Conclusion: Machine-learning based algorithms can detect atrial fibrillation with accuracy. Although additional validation is needed, this methodology could encourage a new approach to detect NVAF.