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Local risk perception enhances epidemic control
José L Herrera-Diestra1,2,3, Lauren Ancel Meyers4
1ICTP South American Institute for Fundamental Research, São Paulo, Brazil.
Plos One
|December 4, 2019
Summary
Adopting public health interventions based on the number of infected social contacts is most effective for preventing disease transmission and requires fewer resources. This strategy also generates a significant herd effect, protecting the wider community.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- Infectious disease outbreaks necessitate public health interventions like vaccination and social distancing.
- Public adherence to these measures is crucial for their success.
- Individual decisions to adopt precautions are influenced by both global and local factors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare three distinct modes of epidemiological decision-making during an outbreak.
- To model individual intervention adoption based on disease prevalence, proportion of infected contacts, or number of infected contacts.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of different strategies in mitigating disease transmission.
Main Methods:
- Utilized network-based mathematical models to simulate human contact patterns.
- Incorporated heterogeneity in contact networks.
- Modeled individual decision-making processes for intervention adoption.
Main Results:
- All modeled strategies demonstrated a substantial mitigation of disease transmission.
- Decision-making based on the number of infected social contacts proved most effective in preventing infections.
- This strategy also showed the greatest efficiency in terms of intervention resources required.
- A significant herd effect was observed, offering indirect protection to a large population segment.
Conclusions:
- Individual-level decision-making significantly impacts outbreak dynamics.
- Targeting interventions based on local social network information (number of infected contacts) offers superior public health benefits.
- This approach maximizes disease prevention while optimizing resource allocation and promoting population-wide indirect protection.
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