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Temporal Trends and Future Predictions of Regional EMS System Utilization Using Statistical Modeling.

Michael J Carr1,2, Robert Bauter1,3, Philip Shepherd1,4

  • 1MONOC Hospital Service Corp EMS System, Wall Township, Neptune, New JerseyUSA.

Prehospital and Disaster Medicine
|December 7, 2019
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Emergency Medical Services (EMS) call volume and cancellations are increasing, indicating a growing demand on regional systems. Predictive modeling suggests these trends will continue, impacting future resource planning.

Keywords:
911 call volumeALS system utilizationEMS utilizationutilization forecastutilization prediction

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Area of Science:

  • Emergency medicine
  • Public health systems
  • Health services research

Background:

  • Emergency Medical Services (EMS) utilization trends are crucial for financial and resource planning.
  • Predictive modeling for EMS utilization, accounting for fluctuations, remains an area for development.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze utilization patterns in a regional EMS system to meet population needs.
  • To understand EMS call volume and transportation frequency.
  • To forecast future EMS system usage using a predictive model.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of electronic medical records and computer-assisted dispatch (CAD) data (2010-2017).
  • Calculation and trending of per capita 9-1-1 utilization, Advanced Life Support (ALS) utilization, and ALS cancellation rates.
  • Application of the Additive Winter's approach for prediction modeling.

Main Results:

  • Per capita 9-1-1 call volume increased by 32.46% (2010-2017).
  • Per capita ALS call volume increased by 1.93% (2010-2017).
  • ALS cancellations increased by 8% (2010-2017), with predictions showing continued upward trends.

Conclusions:

  • Significant per capita increases in 9-1-1 call volume observed in the studied ALS system.
  • Rising ALS cancellations before arrival suggest a potential strain on regional EMS resources.
  • The findings highlight the need for proactive resource management and system planning.