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Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Multiple Primary Colorectal Cancer Patients after Surgery
Published on: September 27, 2024
Impact of delay to surgery on survival in stage I-III colon cancer
Fabian Grass1, Kevin T Behm2, Emilie Duchalais2
1Division of Colon and Rectal Surgery, Mayo Clinic, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA; Department of Visceral Surgery, Lausanne University Hospital, Bugnon 46, 1011, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Purpose:
To assess the impact of delay from diagnosis to curative surgery on survival in patients with non-metastatic colon cancer.
Methods:
National Cancer database (NCDB) analysis (2004-2013) including all consecutive patients diagnosed with stage I-III colon cancer and treated with primary elective curative surgery. Short and long delays were defined as lower and upper quartiles of time from diagnosis to treatment, respectively. Age-, sex-, race-, tumor stage and location-, adjuvant treatment-, comorbidity- and socioeconomic factors-adjusted overall survival (OS) was compared between the two groups (short vs. long delay). A multivariable Cox regression model was used to identify the independent impact of each factor on OS.
Results:
Time to treatment was <16 days in the short delay group (31,171 patients) and ≥37 days in the long delay group (29,617 patients). OS was 75.4 vs. 71.9% at 5 years and 56.6 vs. 49.7% at 10 years in short and long delay groups, respectively (both p < 0.0001). Besides demographic (comorbidities, advanced age) and pathological factors (transverse and right-vs. left-sided location, advanced tumor stage, poor differentiation, positive microscopic margins), treatment delay had a significant impact on OS (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.05-1.07 per 14 day-delay) upon multivariable analysis. The adjusted hazard ratio for death increased continuously with delay times of longer than 30 days, to become significant after a delay of 40 days.
Conclusion:
This analysis using a national cancer database revealed a significant impact on OS when surgeries for resectable colon cancer were delayed beyond 40 days from time of diagnosis.
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