Early score fluctuation and placebo response in a study of major depressive disorder

Early score fluctuation in double-blind, placebo-controlled studies may affect the reliability of the baseline measurement and adversely affect the eventual study outcome. We examined the effect of early score fluctuation during a 2-week double-blind placebo lead-in period in a phase II, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of adjunctive s-adenosyl methionine (MSI-195) in MDD subjects who had had an inadequate response to ongoing antidepressant treatment. The overall study failed to meet its specified endpoints. We examined the score trajectories of all placebo-assigned subjects during the double-blind placebo lead-in period and subsequent 6-week treatment period. Placebo-assigned subjects with ≥20% HamD₁₇ or MADRS score fluctuations (improvement or worsening) during the double-blind placebo lead-in period (prior to randomization) had significantly higher rates of placebo response and remission at week 8 compared to subjects with <20% response. A post-hoc analysis of evaluable subjects taken from the ITT population that excluded subjects with ≥20% early score response yielded higher effect sizes for both the HamD₁₇ and MADRS sub-groups and statistical significance for MSI-195 over placebo in the MADRS sub-group (p = 0.012) with an effect size of 0.404. A reliable baseline measure is an asset for signal detection. These post-hoc findings suggest that study designs that anticipate and attempt to manage early response prior to randomization may yield more meaningful outcome data for trials of MDD and possibly other disorders as well.