A Probabilistic Approach to Assessing and Predicting the Failure of Notched Components

This work presents a probabilistic model to evaluate the strength results obtained from an experimental characterisation program on notched components. The generalised local method (GLM) is applied to the derivation of the primary failure cumulative distribution function (PFCDF) as a material property (i.e., independent of the test type, load conditions and specimen geometry selected for the experimental campaign), which guarantees transferability in component design. To illustrate the applicability of the GLM methodology, an experimental program is performed using specimens of EPOLAM 2025 epoxy resin. Three different samples, each with a specific notch geometry, are tested. As a first scenario, a single assessment of each sample is obtained and the PFCDFs are used to perform cross predictions of failure. Some discrepancies are noticeable among the experimental results and cross-failure predictions, although they are within the expected margins. A possible reason for the disagreement can be assigned to the inherent statistical variability of the results and the limited number of tests per each sample. As a second scenario, a joint assessment of the three samples is performed, from which a unique PFCDF is provided, according to the GLM. In the latter case, a more reliable assessment of the experimental results from the geometry conditions is achieved, the suitability of the selected driving force is verified, and the transferability of the present material characterisation is confirmed.