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Quantifying likelihoods of extreme occurrences causing maize yield reduction at the global scale
1College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
The Science of the Total Environment
|December 11, 2019
Summary
Climate extremes like droughts and heatwaves threaten crop yields. This study quantifies the risk of dry, hot, and combined dry-hot conditions reducing maize yields in ten countries, finding compound events pose the highest risk.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Science
- Food Security Studies
Background:
- Weather and climate extremes, such as droughts and heatwaves, significantly impact crop yields and global food security.
- Understanding the probability of extreme events causing crop yield reduction is crucial for developing resilient food systems.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the likelihood of dry, hot, and compound dry-hot conditions causing maize yield reduction in ten major maize-producing countries.
- To quantify these risks using climate observations and national maize yield data from 1961 to 2016.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a multivariate statistical model to quantify the likelihood of extreme climate conditions leading to maize yield reduction.
- Analyzed climate observations and country-level maize yield data spanning 1961-2016.
Main Results:
- The multivariate model accurately quantifies the likelihood of dry, hot, and compound dry-hot conditions causing maize yield reduction.
- Compound dry-hot conditions present the highest likelihood of causing yield reduction across most studied countries, linked to regional precipitation-temperature dependencies.
- The probability of compound dry-hot events increases with the severity of maize yield reduction.
Conclusions:
- Compound dry-hot extreme events pose a significant threat to maize production.
- Findings provide critical data for implementing adaptive agricultural strategies in response to global warming.
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