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Nonlinear population dynamics are ubiquitous in animals.

T J Clark1, Angela D Luis2

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Dynamics
  • Nonlinear Science

Background:

  • Nonlinear dynamics, where output changes are not proportional to input changes, are common in nature, like biochemical kinetics.
  • Animal population dynamics are complex due to interacting environmental and biological factors, suggesting nonlinear, state-dependent drivers.
  • Previous identification of nonlinear dynamics was limited to model organisms and specific natural systems.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the prevalence of nonlinear population dynamics across a diverse range of animal taxa.
  • To determine if nonlinear dynamics are ubiquitous in nature, as suggested by ecological theory.
  • To assess the predictability of animal population trends and identify factors influencing nonlinear dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 747 population datasets from 228 species using nonlinear forecasting techniques.
  • Statistical evaluation of population trend linearity and dimensionality across different animal groups.
  • Correlation analysis between reproductive rates, dynamics dimensionality, and nonlinearity.

Main Results:

  • Nonlinear population dynamics were found to be ubiquitous, present in 74% of insect, 58% of mammal, 49% of bony fish, and 35% of bird populations.
  • Faster-reproducing species exhibited more nonlinear and high-dimensional population dynamics, aligning with ecological predictions.
  • Predictability of population time series was limited, with only one-third predictable beyond two years.

Conclusions:

  • Linear, equilibrium-based models may be inadequate for predicting population dynamics in many animal taxa.
  • The inherent complex, nonlinear dynamics in animal populations could facilitate regime shifts and ecological transitions.
  • While nonlinear dynamics are widespread, the limited long-term predictability highlights challenges in forecasting animal population trends.